In early 2022, bottoms around the UK would literally have s*** themselves had it not been for one major risk in doing so.

We were running out of toilet paper. More expensive than saffron, more elusive than an English summer, you went to the supermarket and toilet paper aisles were emptier than a Conservative Party election promise.

Why? A lack of truck drivers. Apparently. Apparently, we were, and (spoiler alert) had been for some time, c100,000 truck drivers short of the number needed to keep our supermarket shelves stocked with the goods we needed. The media had a frenzy. What would we do if we couldn’t wipe our own a***s???!!!

Predictably, the British public panicked. With no critical thought given, they rushed to the supermarket and bought every toilet paper roll they could find. They dug fallout shelters in their gardens. They joined doomsday cults and prepared for the Apocalypse. We were headed for disaster for sure. Measures needed to be taken…

Fast forward 1 month. By some “unreported by media” miracle, civilisation had not collapsed. Everyone had managed to find enough toilet paper to avoid unspeakable personal hygiene issues. And yet, only an additional 90 truck drivers had been found. Ninety. Nine zero. So we were still 99,910 drivers short of “requirement”, and yet somehow the absolute certain disaster we were headed towards was averted. Man, those extra drivers must have worked hard!!

Really? No, not really. The British public were encouraged to the edge of a cliff and gleefully just walked straight over the edge. No one asked the simple question – if we’ve been 100,000 short of truck drivers until now, how did toilet paper make it to the supermarket shelves for me to panic buy??

The media industry has one tried and tested revenue generator – if you create fear, you’re guaranteed cash. It is human instinct to protect against potential risk, and so if a perceived authority tells you to worry, most will. Consuming media generates cash. As do the supermarkets telling you not to panic buy whilst making record profits off said panic buying.

What does this have to do with Recruitment? Well, I have a question for you. At the time of writing the UK economy is not in a recession nor has it been since Covid. Since the start of the Ukraine War, how many times have we been predicted to go into recession next quarter? And whilst not in recession, any recruiter will tell you, there isn’t a growth mindset out there in their customer base. I’ve personally asked 100+ clients, prospects and competitors over the last 12 months how they’d characterise the market;

“Not great right now, but next quarter we’re anticipating an improvement”.

Every quarter for the last 5 quarters, the same thing…..

Why? Fear. Whilst media-induced fear gets consumers buying products, companies do the exact opposite. They buy nothing. They cut costs. They stop investing. Investing usually equates to hiring. And all because some “authority” said something bad was probably going to happen. And it didn’t. Again, and again and again. If you ran out to Tesco’s to panic buy toilet paper, don’t think the CFO of a FTSE100 company is any less immune to fear than you. They absorb information, process it and react accordingly, just like you. In general terms, that means shutting up shop until fairer weather arrives. So, unless they ignore the fear, then guess what happens? Their lack of investment creates the very recession they were told to be afraid of.

A few added nuggets of “truth” to end on;

1. The latest published data shows the UK is still 50,000 drivers short of “required” numbers.
2. In anticipation of your response to point 1, I’ve just bought shares in Andrex.
3. If you’re a TA Leader and you’re in your supermarket toilet paper aisle and it’s empty, don’t shit yourself. But do go and figure out who in your team you’re making redundant. Because someone somewhere is reacting to that fear and slowing down hiring.
4. If you’re that TA Leader and not currently a customer of Rethink, Digital Gurus or Infinite Talent, I feel it’s my duty and only fair to warn you that because of your poor choices, hell awaits you. Hell is bad. I mean really bad. And you seem really nice. So I’m going to help you. All you need to do is sign a document I send you and you’ll be just fine…

Critical thinking in times of uncertainty divides the winners from the losers. As Warren Buffet says about banks, if you want to know what’s going to happen, don’t listen to what they say, watch what they do.

Now then, I could go on but I need to clear the entrance to my fall-out shelter from all that toilet paper, otherwise there’s no cult meeting happening today…